Banks

A banker or bank is a financial institution that acts as a payment agent for customers, and borrows and lends money.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banking


“This recession is going to be a bad one.”
- Gary North

Mises’ theory of the business cycle:

The central bank inflates. This creates a boom. This creates sectoral bubbles. Then the central bank ceases to inflate. The bubbles will pop. The economy will go into a recession.

Gary North… This recession is going to be a bad one …. I think your first line of self-defense is your job. If you lose your job, you are in big trouble. You will have to sell your assets in a fire sale economy.

You need to do whatever it takes to increase your value to your employer.


- Gary North @ LewRockwell.com: March 22, 2008: Link.

Thanks, EB.



Pyramids Crumbling: observations by Bill Gross on the modern banking system –

Our modern shadow banking system craftily dodges the reserve requirements of traditional institutions and promotes a chain letter, pyramid scheme of leverage, based in many cases on no reserve cushion whatsoever.

… The withdrawal of deposits from our new age shadow banking system has frightening potential consequences because a thinly capitalized banking system is always at risk relative to its more conservative counterpart. Visualize, as does Chart 1, in crude yet understandable form, today’s shadow system versus that of two decades ago.

Banking: Into the Shadows

- Bill Gross, Investment Outlook January 2008 @ PIMCO Bonds: Link.

Observations by Jon Taplin, from his blog:

I don’t mean to be chicken little about the coming recession, but Bill Gross, the largest bond buyer in the US (PIMCO) has just published his January Investment Commentary. He writes about “The Bank Of Shadows” the unregulated banking system born of the Reagan era where reserve requirements are quite lax. Its a truly frightening piece.

… This is simply unsustainable. As a country we are going to have to live within our means. Mrs. Clinton was out today proposing the government loan a great deal of money to homeowners to stave off the inevitable foreclosure. This is not a solution, this is a political prank. It was the financial deregulation signed by her husband that allowed Investment Banks and Money Center Banks to merge, from whence the explosion in financial derivatives sprang.

- Jon Taplin, January 11, 2008: Link.

Comment by Joseph Urla @ Jon Taplin’s Blog:

Thank God I found this website. I have been screaming about this stuff. The otc market is totally out of control, with total notional amounts of outstanding trades at roughly $600 trillion by now, and criminally under the radar. Many of the participants don’t even have to be registered financial entities. This is a failure of fiduciary responsibility of the highest order.

- Joseph Urla @ Jon Taplin’s Blog: Link.

Via Boing Boing’s Cory Doctorow:

For the past couple weeks, one of my favorite blog-reads has been Jonathan Taplin’s blog. I got to know Jon when I lived in LA last year when he was co-faculty with me at the USC Annenberg Centre: he’s a smart polymath with a background as a music and film producer (Bob Dylan, Mean Streets, others), Democratic party shaker, financier, high-tech startup entrepreneur, and good thinker on diverse issues related to media, politics and technology.

Taplin’s blog is as eclectic as he is, a straight-up analysis blog that rips into the headlines, illuminating everything from economic news to the writers’ strike to heavy weather to democratic politics. I keep finding myself returning to Taplin’s posts as I read the news and talk with friends.

- Cory Doctorow @ Boing Boing: Link.



America and the Dollar Illusion — Gabor Steingart comments on America’s place in the global economy:

  • The US foreign debt grows by about $1.5 billion every weekday and has now reached about $3 trillion
  • Private household debt, both at home and abroad, has reached $9 trillion — and 40 percent of these debts has been incurred since 2001
  • Almost no one is saving money in the United States today
  • The Americans are enjoying the present at the cost of selling off ever larger chunks of their future

US economic growth, in fact, is fueled by ever-increasing consumer spending — puzzling given that American wages are dropping as is industrial output. Still, everyone knows the answer to this riddle. The rise in consumption isn’t based on an expansion of production, a rise in wages or even an increase in exports. To a large extent, it’s based on the growing debt. But why do banks keep issuing credit? Because they accept the ever-increasing prices of stocks and real estate as a kind of collateral. A closed circuit of miraculous money minting has been created.

Self-delusion

The extent of this self-delusion can be read in the balance sheets of the banks: Almost no one is saving money in the United States today. The US foreign debt grows by about $1.5 billion every weekday and has now reached about $3 trillion. Private household debt, both at home and abroad, has reached $9 trillion — and 40 percent of these debts has been incurred since 2001. The Americans are enjoying the present at the cost of selling off ever larger chunks of their future. Arguably, the imminent economic crisis is the most thoroughly predicted one in recent history. Rather than refuting the crisis, the current US economic boom merely heralds it.

Biologists have observed similar phenomena in plants contaminated by toxins. Before they wither, they produce one last batch of healthy shoots — to the point that they can hardly be distinguished from healthy plants. Some speak of a panic bloom.

[Gabor Steingart: Spiegel Online]

Glossary

  • US economic growth
  • ever-increasing consumer spending
  • debt
  • miraculous money minting
  • panic bloom


September 14, 2006:
Russian Central Bank reformer Andrei Kozlov gunned down —

Andrei KozlovAndrei Kozlov, who had spearheaded the campaign against fraudulent banks and money laundering as the No. 2 official at the Central Bank, died of gunshot wounds early Thursday.

Kozlov, 41, the bank’s first deputy head, and his driver, Alexander Semyonov, 54, were shot by two gunmen with automatic pistols Wednesday evening as Kozlov was exiting the Spartak sports complex.

… A longtime Central Bank official, Kozlov oversaw the closure of 44 banks accused of improper activities this year alone. He had also pushed for mandatory deposit insurance for banks, which was particularly important to millions of Russians who lost their savings in financial crises in the 1990s.

Most recently, he had lobbied for a permanent ban on those convicted of tax evasion from working in the banking sector.

Kozlov’s killing has raised concerns among many in the banking sector that these reforms and others could be stalled.

While the investigation has just begun, several senior government officials and banking sector experts said Kozlov died because of his work.

“He was a very brave and honest man, and through his activity he repeatedly encroached on the interests of unprincipled financiers,” Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in a statement Thursday.

Born in Moscow on Jan. 6, 1965, Kozlov, started his career at the State Bank of the Soviet Union in 1989. He joined the Central Bank after the 1991 Soviet collapse, reaching the bank’s highest echelons by the mid-1990s and becoming first deputy head in 1997.

From 1999 to 2001, Kozlov took a break from government. During that time, he served as board chairman of the Russky Standard bank and also worked for a subsidiary of Aeroflot.

Kozlov is survived by his wife, Yekaterina, and three children.

[Moscow Times: Link]

Andrew Osborn reports from Moscow –

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his country’s battle with organised crime has entered a dangerous new phase after the assassination of a top anti-money-laundering official.

Putin called [Kozlov’s] murder “a manifestation of the intensifying situation in the struggle against crime” and ordered a special task force be established to staunch the rivers of dirty money that flow through Russia every day.

… It is no exaggeration to say that Kozlov’s slaying was the most high- profile murder of a senior official since Putin came to power six years ago; his rank was close to that of a government minister. Senior politicians called the attack an assault on the government itself and said it shattered an unspoken truce between the Kremlin and the Russian mafia, a catch-all phrase for scores of highly organised criminal groupings that have sprung up since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the chaotic 1990s, the Mafia routinely “eliminated” awkward politicians and officials, but since the tough- talking Putin took the reins of power it had backed away from such terror tactics and was thought to have opted instead for a veneer of respectability.

That “truce” now appears to have been torn up overnight.

Kozlov … had shut down dozens of “dirty” banks after revealing that they were fronts for money launderers.

Perhaps more significantly, he planned to shut down dozens of others in the months and years ahead and kept a blacklist of financial institutions he suspected were “compromised” which he was working his way through.

… Kozlov had become adept at “following the money” and closing down such banks by withdrawing their licences and publicising their wrongdoing.

His most high-profile case came in 2004 when he took on the aptly named Sodbiznesbank, ironically a large contributor to Putin’s re-election campaign.

Kozlov accused the bank of accepting ransom money to the value of $1m (£532,000) from a well-known criminal group. The money was purportedly extorted from a Russian truck-maker called Kamaz, whose general director Viktor Faber was kidnapped along with the company’s chief economist Natalia Starodubtseva.

The kidnapping went badly wrong: both were abducted in May 2003 and found dead in September but the hostage-takers got their money nonetheless.

Kozlov suggested that the bank was implicated in the crime, said over 80% of its capital was fictitious, and ordered it to hand back its banking licence.

Sodbiznesbank’s defence mechanism was crude. It blocked access to its central Moscow office for two weeks during which time it allegedly spirited away millions of dollars of assets. In the end, Kozlov ordered in the riot police who stormed the offices ending the standoff.

Powerful vested interests were clearly upset though and the affair caught up with Alexander Slesarev, the 37-year-old owner of Sodbiznesbank bank, last October.

He was executed with his wife and daughter in a contract drive-by shooting just outside Moscow.

[Sunday Herald: Link]

Flashback 1997:
Business Week praises Andrei Kozlov for creating “Russia’s most liquid, clean, and efficient securities market” –

In 1992, Russia’s economy was in chaos. Inflation was 2,000%. Industrial output was falling. Trust in Boris N. Yeltsin’s radical reformers was nil.

But in the bowels of the Central Bank of Russia, Andrei A. Kozlov, 32, saw a way out. A staffer in the securities department, he heard a group of American bankers, including then New York Federal Reserve Bank President Gerald E. Corrigan, describe how the U.S. government finances its operations by borrowing money on capital markets. Kozlov vowed to develop Russia’s own government securities program. Says Kozlov: ‘’The attitude of the majority of higher-level government officials was, ‘Let these young guys play with their toys.”’

Five years later, Kozlov, is First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, and his ‘’toys'’ are bringing billions of dollars to the Russian budget. Using Corrigan’s advice, he created Russia’s most liquid, clean, and efficient securities market. Now, Russian and foreign investors feel confident enough to put over $50 billion in Russian Treasury bonds. Russia qualified for an international rating in September, 1996. Since then, Russians have sold more than $6.5 billion in Eurobonds. Says David Boren, Salomon Brothers’ emerging- markets research president: ‘’Kozlov was there early, he’s going to stay around a long time, and he’s clean.'’

[Link]